Let’s Be Honest With Ourselves:

In our heart of hearts, we’ve always known that subsidies for solar wouldn’t last forever—and frankly, they shouldn’t.

Barring a complete and total collapse of the Big Beautiful Bill (still possible, but unlikely), it looks like we’re headed toward a 1–3 year wind-down of residential and commercial solar subsidies in the U.S.

If you had told the early pioneers of the inverter market 20 years ago, back when SMA dominated rooftops and Enphase was just a scrappy startup, that solar pricing would drop by over 90% — but eventually the subsidies would dry up — I think 100% of them would’ve taken that deal.

Well that's exactly what has happened, and you'll see below from IRENA (2024); Nemet (2009); Farmer and Lafond (2016):

So, where do we go from here?

To a large extent, the growth of the inverter market has been artificially inflated by 30% tax credits, state rebates, and other golden parachutes. In the next 180 to 540 days, the entire sector, especially manufacturers, will need to prove it can stand on its own.

So, the question is: Can inverter companies survive (and thrive) in a world with no ITC, no rich margins, and utility rates hovering at $0.08/kWh?

Well, let’s reckon with a few hard truths first:

1. Sky-High Subsidies Created Sky-High Margins

When the incentives are fat, margins bloat. And for inverter manufacturers, it’s been a golden era.

But a lot of that gold ended up in quarterly earnings reports in Shenzhen, Munich, and Silicon Valley, not in customer experience or meaningful innovation.

So yes, a decent chunk of subsidy dollars have become de facto corporate welfare for foreign shareholders, with U.S. taxpayers footing the bill. If module prices take a haircut, that’s not a tragedy. That’s a correction.

Instead of competing on long-term reliability or O&M transparency, some players focused on locking up proprietary ecosystems and pushing firmware updates no one asked for.

It’s not just time to cut the fat — it’s time to re-center around value:

More uptime. Better monitoring. Smarter integration.

If prices take a haircut, let the manufacturers absorb the first cut.

2. U.S. Soft Costs Are Still Out of Control

We’ve all heard the joke: “Going solar in the U.S. means buying a bunch of paperwork.”

It’s not funny anymore. Why?

Because in a post-subsidy world, every dollar counts, and inverters are often the bottleneck in both approval and activation. Companies that ship with clean documentation, clear compliance paths, and pre-integrated DER solutions will win. Those that don’t? They’ll become too expensive to justify.

You can’t just build a good box anymore. You need to build one that helps the installer get paid faster.

3. The Vertically-Integrated Model May Not Survive Intact

Let’s be really honest:

Those federal subsidies allowed many of us to build vertically-integrated companies—ones that paid decent wages, offered real benefits, and helped legitimize solar as a skilled trade.

But if you want your projects to pencil in this new world, you may need to get leaner.

That might mean working with highly capable, well-vetted subcontractors. These are folks who manage their own trucks, pull their own material, and show up ready to go.

A year ago, I would’ve never said this. I’ve long championed the vertically-integrated model.

But today? I’d rather see a leaner solar industry that adapts than no solar industry at all.

4. Automation Is No Longer Optional

In a world without the ITC, your margins will shrink, so your efficiency needs to rise.

And that means:

- Automating project updates and customer communication

- Turning your service department into a profit center

- Letting your customers become your marketing engine

- Reducing your customer acquisition cost with smarter referrals

- Doing more projects with fewer project managers

You’ll need tools, systems, and software that let you do more with less and actually enjoy it.

Now is the time to finally invest in ops tools, automation platforms, referral engines, and customer portals that scale without adding headcount. Because solar is a team sport, and if we’re going to thrive post-subsidy, we need everyone rowing in sync.

Final Thoughts

We still have a few weeks (or maybe months) before anything is finalized.

But the smart companies aren’t waiting for Congress to decide their future. They’re tightening supply chains, opening up platforms, and finally listening to the people who keep their products on the wall: the installers.

The reckoning is here. And the runway is short.

It’s time to stop talking about “premium brand perception” and start talking about uptime, simplicity, and speed.

Because when the tide goes out, we all find out who was shipping firmware updates in their swim trunks.

We can hope for the best, or build for the worst.

Better yet: do both.